I recently completed my first major woodworking project: a new outdoor dining table. Aside from a major staining mishap (too orange!), the project went well, with one glaring exception: It took way longer than promised. I followed the plans outlined by a DIY website—even paying a couple bucks for them!—based on the premise that it … Continue reading On how experts don’t know how long anything takes
Tag: planning fallacy
On the planning fallacy
Oh, dear. If there’s a cognitive bias that defines my life, it’s this one. Ever an optimist, I am often—always—greatly underestimating how much time and effort it will take to do—well, go do just about anything. Write an email, review an RFP, eat lunch, pick a toddler up from daycare. It could be anything—the planning … Continue reading On the planning fallacy